Chinese students outnumber Indians in UK again after visa changes

Chinese students once again made up the largest cohort of international enrolments in the UK last year despite demand falling by 6 per cent, with the country seeing even steeper drops in numbers coming from India.

New Home Office figures released on 27 February show the full impact of restrictions preventing students bringing their family members with them unless they are on postgraduate research courses, a rule that began in January 2024 and triggered significant falls in overseas demand across the year.

In 2024, there were 393,125 sponsored study visas granted to main applicants, the figures show. Though historically quite high, this was 14 per cent less than the year before and 18 per cent below the peak levels of 2022.

Chinese students made up the largest proportion of visas granted between 2010 and 2021, peaking at 44 per cent of the total before the Covid-19 pandemic. This fell to just 21 per cent as they were outnumbered by Indian students in 2022 and 2023.

Demand from Chinese students fell by 6 per cent last year but they were largely unaffected by the dependants ban because just a fraction of all sponsored study-related visas are typically granted to their family members.

The 102,942 sponsored study visas issued to main applicants (26 per cent of the total) was enough to reclaim top spot.

A total of 88,859 (23 per cent) visas were granted to students from India. This was 26 per cent less than in 2023 and the largest annual fall in 12 years.

A quarter of all study visas for Indian nationals were for dependants in 2023 but this fell to just 4 per cent last year – the lowest rate since comparable records began in 2009.

A similar pattern emerged among applicants from Nigeria. Post-pandemic interest from the west African nation jumped as dependants even outnumbered students in 2022 and 2023.

However, 85 per cent less dependant visas were granted to Nigerians last year following the restrictions, and study visas also fell by 55 per cent to 18,902 (5 per cent of the total).

The number of dependants visas issued to family members of students from Pakistan also fell by 85 per cent in 2024 – but this did not affect demand from students, which rose by 13 per cent.

A record 35,043 sponsored study visas went to Pakistani students – almost 10 times as many as in 2019. At 9 per cent, Pakistan students are now the third largest market for UK higher education.

There were also increases in visas for students from the US (5 per cent) and Nepal (44 per cent). Outside the top 50 biggest markets for the UK just a few years ago, Nepal is now the sixth largest.

But there were falls in the numbers of study visas issued to the UK’s other largest source markets, including Bangladesh (31 per cent), Malaysia (12 per cent), Hong Kong (15 per cent) and Saudi Arabia (16 per cent).

The fluctuations in demand from India and Nigeria in particular have altered the overall composition of the overseas student cohort quite significantly.

Of the 378,768 entry clearance visas granted in 2024, 61 per cent went to Masters students. This was down from 66 per cent in 2023 and the lowest level since 2019.

More than a quarter (27 per cent) of visas were granted to undergraduate students, 5 per cent for those below that level, and 3 per cent for doctoral students.

Ben Brindle, researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said: “The past few years have seen a ‘boom and bust’ in some visa categories, particularly students’ family members and health and care visas.

"The large declines in visa grants have been possible primarily because the number of visas previously being issued in the post-Brexit immigration system was so high."

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com