Undercounting meant that a research centre’s warning over a “substantial” fall in first-year enrolment was an error – with US universities instead seeing a rise in recruitment.
Preliminary figures from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s autumn intake report showed that first-year numbers for the current academic year were down by 5 per cent on last year.
However, the organisation has now revealed that a methodological error affecting its calculation of freshman enrolment, involving about half of all institutions, was at fault.
In a statement, it said that an error in research methodology had caused certain students to be mislabelled as dual-enrolled rather than as freshmen. As a result, the number of first-years was undercounted, and the number of dual-enrolled was overcounted.
Doug Shapiro, executive director of the research centre, said: “The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center acknowledges the importance and significance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community.
“We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent such occurrences in the future.”
Mr Shapiro said that subsequent research has found that instead of decreasing by 5 per cent, freshman enrolment has increased this autumn.
Further data on enrolment, covering almost all institutions of higher education, will be released later this month.
The retraction will be welcomed by many in the sector, who are concerned about the coming demographic “enrolment cliff”.
James Kvaal, undersecretary of state for education, said: “We are encouraged and relieved that updated data from the National Student Clearinghouse shows freshman enrolment is up this school year.
“The increase is consistent with what we are seeing on the financial aid side: more than 5 per cent more students are receiving federal aid this year.”
Mr Kvaal, in his last week in the Biden administration, thanked schools, college counsellors, colleges and universities, and community organisations for “pulling together to help students and families through a tough year”.
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