Thames Valley University faces an unprecedented struggle to implement the recovery plan that promises to save it from collapse.
At a time when all universities are struggling against per capita funding cuts and many face a fall in student applicants TVU must implement an 84-point action plan that raises additional costs and demands savings. The success or failure of the plan hinges on the vagaries of student demand and the continued compliance of staff who will have to swallow widespread job losses.
Yet successful implementation of the plan, which was approved by the Higher Education Funding Council for England last week, is TVU's only chance of survival. HEFCE demanded an action plan following last November's damning report by the Quality Assurance Agency. The report led to the immediate resignation of vice-chancellor Mike Fitzgerald. Sir William Taylor was appointed as acting vice-chancellor to prepare and implement the plan.
Sir William is optimistic but warns of "painful" decisions ahead. It will cost an estimated Pounds 13.5 million to implement the plan over the next two to three years. HEFCE has agreed to contribute Pounds 7.2 million but this still leaves TVU to find Pounds 6.3 million by axeing jobs, increasing income and selling property. On top of this the university must make Pounds 8 million savings in each of the next three academic years. Most cuts will fall on central administration, criticised by the QAA.
An announcement on redundancies because of course closure and restructuring is due next month. In the worst-case scenario TVU could sell all or part of either Ealing or Slough campuses.
Raising income depends on recruitment as students bring in funding council and tuition fee cash. The plan is to set the intake for 1999-00 at 15 per cent below this year's. But the latest figures from the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service put applications to TVU at 19 per cent lower than the same time last year. The action plan admits that TVU has a problem in converting applicants into enrolled students as well as countering its negative public image.
Other factors could also jeopardise progress towards turning the projected Pounds 8 million-a-year deficits into 2 per cent annual operating surpluses, which is what the action plan demands.
The first is the position of further education. More than a fifth of TVU students are on further education courses. But further education provision at TVU is cross-subsidised from the higher education budget to the tune of Pounds 3.5 million. The action plan says this should stop. If not, then this work, which is key to TVU's access policy, might be farmed out to neighbouring colleges.
The second is the position of nursing and health-care students. TVU is one of the country's biggest health-care training providers with 3,300 student places dependent on two contracts with local NHS trusts. The courses score well for teaching quality but the contracts are due for renewal next year.
Their importance is underlined by Sir William who says the university will pursue their renewal.
Sir William said: "No one underestimates the challenges facing the university but the funding council is behind us and has provided the means whereby we can go forward and make the necessary savings."
But savings mean redundancies and inevitable trade union opposition. Natfhe represents more than half of all TVU lecturing staff. Branch official Stuart Goodden said: "We will be resisting all job losses and will be fighting each one to ensure that it is fully justified."
The action plan warns that the university will not survive without the good will and compliance of staff. Mr Goodden said the goodwill is there, but added: "We are in a precarious position because we want the continued survival of the university but, at the same time, must look after members.
It is going to take lots of hard talking." Natfhe is also concerned at the workloads implied by the action plan. The introduction of a new academic year, incorporating a pre-semester and inter-semester, means staff teaching during the summer to bring students up to first-year entry standard and to help students between first and second year.
Staff will be expected to support students more and to "show greater respect for" administrative procedures and deadlines.
When all the changes demanded by the action plan are complete, TVU will barely resemble a university in the traditional sense. The plan is to create just four faculties from the existing seven schools. The four are: health sciences; music and media; tourism, hospitality and leisure; business and management. These are areas in which teaching quality is high and there is strong student recruitment.
Under threat are: the school of English language education, which won a five in the 1996 research assessment exercise but loses money; the school of European, international and social studies; and the school of law, which will be transferred to the faculty of business and management. First degrees in English, maths, history, physics, chemistry, languages and other traditional subjects will not be options.
The university will focus on teaching and scholarship connected to teaching. Chasing grades in the RAE will be a low priority except where research is clearly focused and fully funded. According to the action plan, the changes will ensure a healthy future for TVU. But it adds: "Nevertheless, the position of the university within the national market for higher education will need to be closely monitored."