Drop in student dependant arrivals pushes down UK immigration

A sharp decline in the number of dependants arriving on study visas has triggered a significant fall in migration to the UK, according to new figures, with data also showing that elite universities are less affected.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that long-term net migration fell by 20 per cent between the end of June 2023 and the same month this year.

Statisticians attributed this fall to declining numbers of dependants arriving on study visas since the previous government introduced new restrictions in January – though they warned that the full impact of the policy was not yet known.

Emigration also rose, driven by more overseas students leaving the country, according to the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford. But international students have become more likely to remain in the UK after their studies and are still departing at lower rates than in the past.

Separate data released by the Home Office showed that 362,341 student-sponsored related visas were granted in the first three quarters of 2024 – 31 per cent fewer than across the same period in 2023.

The number of student visas issued fell by 16 per cent in the year so far, while the number granted to family members fell by 84 per cent. The Migration Observatory said that the overall decline was driven primarily by applicants from Nigeria and India, which fell by 74 per cent and 42 per cent, respectively.

It also warned that the effects of the decrease would be felt unevenly across the higher education sector, and analysis of another Home Office dataset on Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issuances proved that this was the case.

A total of 113,777 students used CAS issuances at Russell Group universities to apply for visas between July and September this year – 2 per cent fewer than in 2023. However, the number of applications to institutions outside this mission group fell by 20 per cent over the same period.

“The latest figures confirm that changes to immigration rules introduced by the previous government, alongside other global factors, have driven international student numbers down significantly,” said a spokesperson from the Russell Group.

“Campuses across the UK will miss out on the enriching diversity of experiences and perspectives that international students bring. The economic impact will also be substantial, risking fewer opportunities for home students, less spending in local communities and more pressure on R&D budgets.”

The Russell Group called for the government to reverse this trend in order to help its stated mission to grow the UK economy and said that polling showed cutting international student numbers was “not an immigration priority for the public”.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com