Falling visa applications hit non-Russell Group campuses hardest

A large fall in visa applications from international students looks set to impact non-Russell Group institutions the most, according to new data.

Home Office statistics show that 94,042 sponsored study-related visas were granted in the first six months of 2024 – 44 per cent fewer than during the same period in 2023. The number of dependants granted visas fell from 60,698 to 11,675 – an 81 per cent drop.

The data – similiar to other figures that previously triggered “alarm bells” in the sector” – again shows the immediate impact of a ban imposed by the last government on students bringing dependants unless they are on postgraduate research courses.

Any change in the number of main applicants will not be known fully until after the summer, but the figures show a 23 per cent drop since the first half of last year.

Amid overall falling immigration, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said that Labour had inherited falling immigration from its predecessor.

Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Migration Observatory, said it was hard to predict the precise scale of the changes because many of the recent student arrivals may not remain in the UK long-term.

“Nonetheless, the strong indication is that Labour will be able to meet its commitment to reduce net migration from the unusually high levels the UK has recently seen, primarily due to trends that were already in train well before they were elected,” he added.

The vast majority (85 per cent) of the fall in student visa numbers can be attributed to large decreases in the number of main applicants from India (28 per cent down) and Nigeria (68 per cent down) granted visas.

The ban on dependants remains in place under the new Labour government, which was mostly largely silent on the issue during its period in opposition.

After concerning signs in recent Ucas data showed that lower-tariff universities were bearing the brunt of falling intake, separate Home Office figures appear to bring more bad news.

A total of 400,506 student visa applications were made in the 12 months to June 2024 – down 12 per cent on the previous year.

The number submitted for Russell Group universities fell 4 per cent over this period, while the number for those outside this group dropped 16 per cent.

“The impacts (of a decline in student numbers) are likely to fall on the non-Russell Group institutions that had previously ramped up overseas recruitment, particularly from India and Nigeria,” said Dr Brindle.

“Some of this decline was probably inevitable for reasons unrelated to policy: including a currency collapse in Nigeria and the end of the post-Covid bounce-back.”

However, he added that it is too early to say how significant the decline this year will be because most students apply for their visas over the summer.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com