Grade deflation: first-class degrees back to pre-pandemic levels

The number of UK students awarded first-class honours degrees has fallen to its lowest level since before the pandemic, according to figures which reveal how grade inflation has eased again.

After years of improving grades, particularly during academic terms affected by Covid-19 marking policies, the much-delayed figures have been welcomed by the sector.

Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa) data shows that 29.5 per cent of students at UK institutions received first-class degrees in 2022-23 – down from 32.1 per cent the year before, and the peak of 36.4 per cent in 2020-21.

It means the proportion of students getting top grades has fallen to the lowest level since 2018-19 – fulfilling a pledge that the sector made to reverse grade inflation.

The years since were characterised by “no detriment” policies designed to keep students from being disadvantaged by Covid-19 disruption, and online examinations which continued after.

Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi), warned that the summary data was of limited value given it was released around six months later than expected – but that it would be welcomed by many in the sector.

“The drop results from a number of sector-led initiatives as well as political pressure and the passing of the pandemic, as Covid had meant grading became more generous,” he said.

Along with issues with its new data platform, Hesa warned that because of the marking and assessment boycott, some providers were unable to return all awarded qualifications resulting in undercounting.

Susan Smith, deputy director of student experience at UCL, said the composition of this cohort of students was likely to have been impacted by their A-level grades being disrupted by the pandemic.

“I think the ‘deflation’ in outcomes for 2022-23 is the likely outcome of a number of factors, including a return to pre-pandemic regulations, reintroduction of in person assessment in some institutions and potentially the impact of the industrial action that took place in relation to marking in 2022-23, as well as the clear signals from the OfS in relation to grade inflation,” she added.

Overall, 77 per cent of students received a first-class or upper second-class degree in 2022-23, and 23 per cent a lower second class or third-class degree.

“The change makes the top grade a little more meaningful for employers once again, even though close to one-third still get a first,” said Mr Hillman.

“But we'll have to wait to see if this is a long-term trend or a shorter term blip – it may be that the new government is less concerned by university grades and more concerned by other things, which could encourage people to take their eye of the ball.”

During the pandemic, grade inflation had increased primarily among those studying full-time – with 37.1 per cent achieving top grades in 2020-21, compared to just 27.7 per cent for part-time students.

However, the latest statistics reveal this awarding gap has closed, at 29.5 per cent for both.

Rose Stephenson, director of policy and advocacy at Hepi, said she was particularly pleased to see the gap narrowing as part-time learners are often non-traditional students, balancing “complex responsibilities alongside their studies”.

“Maintaining this level of equality will be important as we potentially see the Lifelong Learning Entitlement enacted,” she added.

“Studying outside of the ‘full-time, three-year degree’ character may become more commonplace due to this, and maintaining quality through more staccato educational journeys will be paramount.”

The Office for Students (OfS), which is yet to publish its own analysis of grade inflation, said the figures are testament to the sector’s commitment to addressing unexplained increases in grades.

Josh Fleming, director of strategy and delivery for the OfS, added: ‘It is important – for students, employers and the higher education system as a whole - that degrees are a fair reflection of student achievement and maintain their value over time.

"We have been concerned by rapid increases – over more than a decade – of first class degrees being awarded, especially where these cannot be explained by students’ entry qualifications or the subject of study."

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com