‘New baseline’: UK overseas student enrolment ‘down 26 per cent’

Lower numbers of international students reflect the UK’s “new baseline” although there are some encouraging signs on recruitment, according to new data.

Recent visa figures for the current academic year have shown repeatedly that the number of overseas applicants is down significantly on 2023, since a ban on family members was introduced this January.

New data from Enroly, a platform that supports the management of international students coming to the UK, found that Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issuances for the September and October intake were down 26 per cent on 2023. However, the company said this was an improvement on the 52 per cent decline that had been seen for this cohort by May.

The market is “recalibrating” to levels of recruitment seen in 2022, suggesting that 2023 was “an outlier rather than a benchmark”, says Enroly’s report.

“This recovery trend suggests that universities are regaining momentum in their student recruitment efforts.”

The drop in international recruitment has been a key contributor to UK universities’ financial woes, with fresh rounds of job cuts announced in recent weeks as enrolment figures have been become clearer.

The Enroly data set includes data from 59 institutions, comprising both universities and pathway providers, and covers more than 300,000 students.

The ban on dependants for all students apart from those on postgraduate research courses has impacted applicants from Nigeria and India, in particular – which the Enroly data confirms.

CAS issuances fell by 60 per cent for Nigeria, and 58 per cent across West Africa more broadly – the worst-performing region. In contrast, East Africa was singled out as a “bright spot” because it had an impressive rise in CAS issuances.

However, all the UK’s other top source markets also saw declines in CAS issuances, including India (37 per cent down), Bangladesh (32 per cent down), Pakistan (25 per cent down), and China (20 per cent down).

Enroly said these trends indicated opportunities for continued growth in regions such as East Africa and South-east Asia and the need for strategic interventions to bolster markets such as West Africa, East Asia, and South Asia.

“While numbers are down compared to the exceptional highs of 2023, this September 2024 intake likely reflects the new baseline for the sector,” said Jeffrey Williams, chief executive of Enroly.

“Universities, agents and service providers have worked tirelessly, and getting to these numbers has been a true collaborative effort by all stakeholders in what has not been an easy year.

“It’s also encouraging to see promising signs for January 2025, giving us all hope for continued progress in the months ahead.”

The early data for January intake shows CAS issuances are down 13 per cent on last year, but there is a slight increase in deposits.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com