No ‘God-given right’ to international students, UK warned

Universities in the UK have been warned to prepare for a future in which they do not have a “God-given right” to be leading recruiters of international students.

Despite recent positive signals in recruitment data, David Pilsbury, chief development officer at Oxford International Education Group, told delegates at Jisc’s Data Matters conference that “challenging head winds are coming”.

“I don’t want to be hyperbolic but please do not think that world-class higher education delivered in the UK means that we have a God-given right to continue to be a top recruiter,” Pilsbury told the event.

“We are seeing our position eroded so we have to find new ways of getting to students.”

However, those with the right strategies and a real understanding of the market have “enormous potential” to leverage opportunities, he added.

Also speaking at the conference in Manchester, Janet Ilieva, founder of the Education Insight consultancy, said global student flows have changed significantly since the coronavirus pandemic.

The dominance of China and India is obvious but demographic growth in the number of 18-year-olds in both superpowers is slowing down, said Ilieva.

“In the next few decades, global mobility will continue to be shaped by the two most prominent players, which are China and India, however there are some significant changes in terms of student decision-making,” she said.

She said that a significant decline in average disposable income meant many Chinese families were becoming increasingly price-sensitive post-Covid.

As a result, many appear to be shifting their preferences to countries closer to home, such as South Korea and Thailand.

Meanwhile, the latest figures suggest that many of the countries with the largest expected growth in the number of 18-year-olds also have very low participation rates in higher education, including Nigeria, Pakistan and Ethiopia.

At the same time, China – along with Turkey, the UAE and Japan – is becoming very popular with international students.

“Their prominence is likely to continue to grow, especially for students within their own region,” said Ilieva.

“Price is a significant factor, but what we are also seeing is a growing number of students choose to study in a country that’s much nearer to their home, so intra-regional mobility is likely to shape the future of international student mobility.”

In this developing landscape, Ilieva said that the UK’s biggest opportunity to capitalise on these emerging trends lay in transnational education (TNE).

“In a situation where money is much tighter, and families are very, very price-conscious…we’re likely to see a growing proportion of students and families considering cost-effective options of acquiring a higher education degree,” she said.

“TNE and partnership arrangements enable this to happen.”

Pilsbury agreed that transnational education has become “essential” in a post-pandemic world, because global higher education was in a very different context to 2019.

“It is sad that universities are trying to reinvent that halcyon period; we have to prepare for a new future,” he said.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com