Trends: A sorry state of affairs

The drop in numbers of pupils from maintained schools applying to study science and language should trigger alarm bells, says Sam Freedman

Key departments at many universities, especially in science and modern languages, are becoming increasingly dependent on admissions from independent schools to sustain their undergraduate programmes. This is being largely ignored in the debate about access agreements and will present universities - and the Government - with an increasingly acute dilemma in future.

In terms of raw numbers, the Government is succeeding in its aim of widening access in higher education, even if it has been forced to revisit its 50 per cent participation target by 2010. According to the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service, the numbers of school-leavers accepted on higher education courses rose from 240,000 in 1995 to 290,000 in 2004. In 1995, 70,000 of these students came from comprehensive schools; last year, the figure was 85,000.

But these impressive increases hide a disturbing trend: a worrying drop in numbers applying to take modern languages and hard sciences, especially in the maintained sector. In 1995, there were 28,500 applications to chemistry courses. By 2004 the figure was down to 15,500. In the same period, applications to French courses fell from 7,600 to 3,400. The number accepted on chemistry courses fell from 4,000 in 1995 to 2,700 in 2004, and for French from 900 in 1995 to 600 last year.

The falls have been much sharper in the maintained than in the independent sector. This has led to a gradual rise in the percentage of new young undergraduates in hard sciences and modern languages coming from the independent sector. In 1995, 15 per cent of new chemistry students came from the independent sector; now the figure is 18.5 per cent. In 1995, 26 per cent of new students on European modern languages courses came from the independent sector; now it is 30 per cent. This is not a question of bias against the maintained sector: a greater percentage of applicants than ever are from independent schools.

This trend is even more pronounced at the most prestigious universities. At most of these, the number of students from independent schools studying modern languages is greater than the average.

To take two examples - in 2004, the French department at Bristol University took 48 per cent of its intake from independent schools compared with an average of 33 per cent across the university for all subjects. At King's College London the figure was 44 per cent - up from 40 per cent in 2001 and 11 per cent higher than the institution's average across all subjects.

These figures are typical of Russell Group universities. Again, this trend cannot be dismissed as bias against the state sector - applications in modern languages come disproportionately from the independent sector. At Oxford University in 2002-04 there were 388 British applicants to study modern languages, 217 of whom were from independent schools (56 per cent).

Of the 164 accepted, 89 (54 per cent) were from independent schools (the Oxford average is 45 per cent). The story was the same in the hard sciences.

It is unlikely to be a coincidence that one of the few universities to take a greater percentage of independent school pupils in 2004 compared with 2003 was Imperial College London, which specialises in the hard sciences.

More than 40 per cent of Imperial students come from independent schools.

In the physical sciences, the percentage of independent students has risen from 31.5 per cent to 35 per cent in the past year alone.

This trend was already apparent in the classics. By 1995, applications had fallen dramatically to about 4,800 and remained steady before falling to 4,600 in 2004. In 1995, 56 per cent were from independent schools - now it is 56.5 per cent. In other words, there has been a slight change, but the damage was already done by the mid-1990s.

It is unquestionably the case that science and modern language departments at top universities increasingly depend on independent schools to provide them with suitable applicants.

Cambridge University admits as much in its access agreement with the Office for Fair Access. It says: "We are... mindful of the implications of the difficulties being experienced by the state sector in student take-up and teaching provision in a number of subjects which are critical for entry into many of our courses, including modern languages, mathematics and physical science subjects."

Therein lies the problem. The number of students from maintained schools and sixth-form colleges studying modern languages and the hard sciences at A level has fallen dramatically over the past five years.

Physics and maths have each seen a drop of 10 per cent, and French and German a drop of 30 per cent. The independent sector has seen a rise of 8 per cent in numbers studying maths and physics. While there has been a fall of 14 per cent in French and German, the sector has seen a 56 per cent increase in the numbers studying Spanish compared with an 11.5 per cent decrease in the maintained sector.

The situation is bound to grow worse. The Secondary Heads Association reported last November that "the numbers in secondary schools doing modern languages at 14 and 15 are falling dramatically". It blames the Government's decision to abandon compulsory language teaching beyond the age of 14 (although it is still compulsory at 97 per cent of independent schools). The Royal Academy of Engineering recently expressed concern that "the independent sector accounts for half of those qualified to study science and engineering at university".

Cambridge suggests in its access agreement that one reason for the discrepancy between the sectors is that independent schools find it easier to recruit qualified teachers in languages and sciences at a time when there are undoubted shortages.

However, now that nearly every large secondary school has access to videoconferencing facilities, there is no reason why every child in the UK should not have access to the most highly qualified teachers. If the Government wishes to ensure the survival of languages and sciences at university, it must make good its rhetoric of partnership and choice, and it must commit to working with the independent sector to help reverse the drift.

Sam Freedman is an analyst at the Independent Schools Council.