Trends: Boys let the side down

Fewer male school-leavers are moving on to university than projected, prompting a review of the Government's participation target. David Jobbins reports

The Government has revised downwards its forecast for the proportion of the population in higher education.

Its touchstone Higher Education Initial Participation Rate, the new measure that in November 2003 superseded previous indices, has been amended to take account of the drop in the proportion of male entrants.

Until the revision, the participation rate among male school-leavers was scheduled to rise steadily from 41 per cent in 1999-2000 to 44 per cent in 2002-03. The latest figures show that the proportion of young males going to university in 2002-03 was 43 per cent, and there appears to have been no increase in 2003-04.

The reason for this lack of growth was because the projected growth in male participation - from 38 per cent in 1999-2000 to 40 per cent in 2002-03 - was not fulfilled. The rate in effect flatlines at 38 per cent between 1999-2000 and 2001-02, with a slight upward blip to 39 per cent, before dropping back to a provisional 38 per cent for 2003-04.

At one time, analysts carefully followed every twist and turn in the Whitehall index to measure the take-up of university places. The Age Participation Index, now supplanted by the Higher Education Initial Participation Rate, was the subject of questions in the House of Commons and scrutiny by the Education Select Committee.

But the ill-fated Initial Entry Rate that replaced it fell victim to a substantial statistical error by officials and was dismissed as a measure of participation because it used entry figures.

This year's Trends in Higher Education charts the steady climb in total student numbers - up in 2003-04 to 2.15 million. The number of female first-year home students has continued to rise, but the number for males has not. Among overseas students, the rise continues, with men just maintaining their narrow lead over women.

The proportion of firsts and upper seconds awarded fell slightly from 56 per cent in 2003 to 55 per cent last year. The number of doctorates also dropped, from 11,835 in 2003 to 11,430.

Spending per full-time-equivalent student continues to increase - standing at about £5,450 - following the 2000-01 low of £5,090. Trends in Higher Education this year adds new data for student-to-staff ratios in England, showing an inexorable but predictable "decline" from 14.6 to 1 in 1991-92 to 18 to 1 in 2002-03.