‘Phenomenal’ visa refusal rate for Indians hoping to study in US

The number of Indians granted student visas in 2024 fell in nearly all top Western study destinations compared with the previous year, according to analysis by market research company Bonard. 

The firm examined visa grant rates in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US in the first three quarters of 2024 and found that fewer study visas had been granted to Indians compared with the same period in previous years, partially as a result of changing immigration policies in some countries. 

Canada experienced the most drastic declines, with 78,869 visas granted in the first nine months of 2024, compared with 283,735 in the same time frame in 2023 – equivalent to a 72 per cent decrease. 

Canada introduced immigration caps in January 2024 to limit the number of international students in the country after a period of massive growth. The policy led to a significant fall in application numbers to Canada’s universities, and expectations that student numbers would fail to reach the level set by the cap. 

In Australia, where policymakers also attempted to cap international student numbers, visa grants were down 46 per cent, while the UK, where a ban on bringing dependants came into force, saw a 38 per cent decline. 

The number of US visas granted to Indian students also declined in 2024, by 49 per cent, primarily owing to “visa processing challenges”, according to Kristína Benediková, international education analyst at Bonard, speaking on a webinar. 

There “persists an organic demand from India and these students are eager to study abroad”, said Benediková. “Nevertheless, with such high interest, the destinations regulate the number of incoming Indian students to maintain healthy levels of diversity.”

While demand for study abroad remains strong among Indian students, analysts said visa challenges meant they were increasingly looking to new markets. Germany has emerged as a strong contender owing to the growth of higher education programmes in English, as well as affordability factors and relatively high visa approval rates. 

“We anticipate that study destinations will continue to shift depending on how students respond to new government policies in major destinations,” said Benediková. 

Bonard also noted increased interest in undergraduate programmes, bucking the historic trend of Indians primarily focusing on postgraduate international study. 

Similarly, “specialised new courses are gaining popularity among Indian students who want to pursue a career in AI”, Benediková said. 

Speaking on the same webinar, Indian study abroad agents said visa rejection rates in the US had been a significant challenge over the past year. 

Rajesh Arya, president of Council for American Education, an Indian agency, said his company had experienced “phenomenal rejections” despite having a historically strong reputation for securing visas. 

He said visa rejection rates in the US had remained high so far in early 2025, while the decline in graduate work opportunities was also making students look elsewhere. 

Madhav Gupta, director of Enbee Education Center, another Indian agency, agreed that the start of 2025 had been “shocking” in terms of US visa rejections. Going forward, “nothing can be worse than what we have seen in this intake”, he said. 

Bonard analysts warned institutions against relying on so-called master agents – study abroad agencies that recruit students via smaller “sub-agents” – which they suggested could be driving increased visa rejection rates in some destinations. 

It is important that institutions move “from quantity to quality” to escape a “vicious cycle” in which all agents face distrust from immigration authorities, said Ivana Bartosik, international education director at Bonard.

“Try to work with those agents who are working with the students directly,” Gupta agreed, adding that, in some cases, master agencies may be going through up to four levels of sub-agencies, “so it becomes challenging for an institution to trust the documents they give or the information they provide”.

“Maybe you’ll get a lot of applications, but…you’ll see they don’t convert into deposits or fee payments,” he said. 

helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com