Chinese students outnumber Indians in UK again after visa changes

Chinese students once again made up the largest cohort of international enrolments in the UK last year despite demand falling 6 per cent, with the country seeing an even steeper drop in numbers coming from India.

New Home Office figures released on 27 February show the full impact of restrictions preventing students bringing their family members with them unless they are on postgraduate research courses, a rule that began in January 2024 and triggered a significant fall in overseas demand across the year.

Figures show that 393,125 sponsored study visas were granted to main applicants in 2024. Although historically quite high, this was 14 per cent lower than the year before and 18 per cent below the peak levels of 2022.

Chinese students made up the largest proportion of visas granted between 2010 and 2021, peaking at 44 per cent of the total before the Covid-19 pandemic. This fell to just 21 per cent when they were outnumbered by Indian students in 2022 and 2023.

Demand from Chinese students fell 6 per cent last year but they were mostly unaffected by the dependants ban because just a fraction of all sponsored study-related visas are typically granted to their family members.

The 102,942 sponsored study visas issued to main applicants (26 per cent of the total) was enough to reclaim the top spot.

A total of 88,859 visas (23 per cent) were granted to students from India. This was 26 per cent less than in 2023 and the largest annual fall in 12 years.

In 2023 a quarter of all study visas for Indian nationals were for dependants but this fell to just 4 per cent last year – the lowest proportion since comparable records began in 2009.

A similar pattern emerged among applicants from Nigeria. Post-pandemic interest from the West African nation soared, with dependants even outnumbering students in 2022 and 2023.

However, the number of dependant visas granted to Nigerians dropped 85 per cent last year following the restrictions, and study visas also fell 55 per cent to 18,902 (5 per cent of the total).

The number of dependant visas issued to family members of students from Pakistan also fell 85 per cent in 2024 – but this did not affect demand from students, which rose 13 per cent.

A record 35,043 sponsored study visas (9 per cent) went to Pakistani students – almost 10 times as many as in 2019. This makes Pakistan now the third largest market for UK higher education.

There were also increases in visas for students from the US (5 per cent) and Nepal (44 per cent). Outside the top 50 biggest markets for the UK just a few years ago, Nepal is now the sixth largest.

But there were declines in the number of study visas issued to the UK’s other largest source markets, including Bangladesh (31 per cent), Malaysia (12 per cent), Hong Kong (15 per cent) and Saudi Arabia (16 per cent).

Fluctuating demand from India and Nigeria in particular has altered the overall composition of the UK’s overseas student cohort quite significantly.

Of the 378,768 entry clearance visas granted last year, 61 per cent went to master’s students. This was down from 66 per cent in 2023 and the lowest level since 2019.

More than a quarter (27 per cent) of visas were granted to undergraduates, 5 per cent for those below that level, and 3 per cent for doctoral students.

Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: “The past few years have seen a ‘boom and bust’ in some visa categories, particularly students’ family members and health and care visas.

"The large declines in visa grants have been possible primarily because the number of visas previously being issued in the post-Brexit immigration system was so high."

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com