International student flows are predicted to decelerate in line with slowdowns in global economic growth, according to a new report commissioned by the British Council.
Researchers from Oxford Economics found a strong relationship between financial growth and outbound student mobility, with the number of international students enrolled in universities increasing significantly over the past two decades, but warn that future mobility levels are uncertain given global volatility.
Worldwide, gross domestic product is expected to continue growing over the next six years, but more slowly than it has done so far this century, indicating that international student numbers will also increase at a more sluggish rate.
Economic slowdowns have been most pronounced in China, South Korea, the US and Nigeria, but are less severe in some key student markets such as India and Vietnam.
India’s outlook is relatively positive thanks to continued population growth and high investment in the country, meaning it is expected to maintain the rate of economic growth seen over the decade before the pandemic.
Despite their differing financial forecasts, both India and China are expected to remain the leading senders of international students globally to 2030. “The sheer scale of these two markets dwarfs the rest of the markets,” authors of the report note.
Meanwhile, they described Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam as “rising stars” because of their “favourable macro environments and low [to] moderate risk profiles”. However, lower population sizes mean that even “very strong expansion” of the outbound markets from these countries would still see them remain behind India and China in terms of student volumes.
Analysts warn that some nations, such as Pakistan, have high potential for growth but show a significant level of risk, in this case because of the ongoing economic crisis, and note the importance that exchange rates play in “price-sensitive” markets such as Nepal, Nigeria and Vietnam.
Data shows that currency fluctuations in Nepal over a 20-year period closely correlated with the number of outbound students, while in wealthier markets such as Italy, student mobility remained stable despite economic volatility.
And, despite soaring demand from Nigerians for UK study in recent years, the country is relatively high risk with less potential for growth than those “rising stars”, according to the analysis. Recent declines in outbound student numbers from Nigeria to the UK have been attributed in part to the devaluation of the naira, which saw some families’ savings halve overnight in terms of their foreign currency value.
Maddalaine Ansell, director of education at the British Council, said the report’s findings show the UK “should not be complacent”.
“At a time of increased competition for international students, the UK must work to maintain its position as a global leader in higher education,” she said, adding that the British Council would work with universities to consider how to attract students from some of the key markets identified in the research.
