The Times Higher looks at how demographic change could affect universities
Stiff competition for university places in Russia has lessened as the number of school-leavers has declined over the past two years. By 2009, universities and secondary professional colleges in Russia will have 400,000 more places available than there are high-school graduates.
Russia's population is declining by 700,000 a year and, according to estimates, could drop to half its current 146 million by 2050.
Although the falling numbers disproportionately affect parts of the population in remote regions such as parts of northern Siberia, low birth rates and high mortality rates, along with the legacy of the past 15 years of social and economic upheaval, are combining to hit student numbers all over Russia.
With an estimated 1.3 million school-leavers competing for 1.7 million places, Russian institutions will be faced with a multitude of challenges, from questioning the value of entrance exams to taking tough decisions over mergers and staff redundancies.
University leaders are beginning to notice the effects. Velikhan Mirzekhanov, dean of history at Saratov State University, said: "The level of knowledge of first-year students has declined; we have to spend the first academic year trying to ensure that they catch up and reach the appropriate level. The only response is to reduce the number of subsidised places to ensure competition and quality. There should not be a policy that everyone should have higher education; it should be available to all, but those who study should have aptitude. At the moment that is not the case."
But for popular universities such as Saratov - where Professor Mirzekhanov's history faculty has between four and 11 applications for each place - the declining cohort represents an opportunity to pick the brightest candidates.
In his state of union address in May, President Vladimir Putin announced a ten-year programme to tackle population decline, with increased childcare benefits for mothers with more than one child among its key measures.
A Ministry of Education spokesman said that it was reducing the number of budget-funded university places available by 10 per cent this year to cope with falling numbers of school-leavers.
But demographic decline could also be a blessing. "Demographic change is actually an opportunity for the Ministry of Education to push through reforms that will finance the best universities," Professor Mirzhekhanov said.