Mexico's "perfect dictatorship" could end next month. Peruvian writer Mario Vargas Llosa coined the phrase to describe the Institutional Revolutionary Party's (PRI) 71-year rule, which combines absolute power with democratic forms, in particular the election of a new president every six years.
Mexico votes on July 2 with Vicente Fox of the National Action Party (PAN) running close to PRI candidate Francisco Labastida in the polls. The Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas Sol"rzano, widely believed to have had the 1988 election stolen from him in a PRI stitch-up, is running a poor third.
Jorge Castaneda, professor of political economy at Mexico's National Autonomous University, said there are limits to what a Fox presidency can achieve. "It will not change the distribution of income or power, or change Mexico's foreign relations." But the political impact would be massive. "It would change everything. The presidency is key to the entire system. The PRI will continue to matter, but with no PRI president there will be no boss. The state governors, business people and union leaders will have to think for themselves," he said.
If the PRI loses, Professor Castaneda expects realignment, with defections to the PAN and the PRD, although if Fox wins "it will be a humiliation for Cardenas".
Professor Castaneda expects Fox to continue PRI economic policies, but to take action to improve education, health, housing and public finances, including the creation of a more effective tax system. "The end of the PRI monopoly will create civic space for groups such as teachers, women's groups and workers in the maquiladora-free trade zones on the United States border to develop their political role," he said.
A Fox administration has a better chance of disentangling problems of Professor Castaneda's University, still recovering from several months of student occupation.
Once a leading adviser to Cardenas, Professor Castaneda will cast his vote for the rightist Fox. "This is a referendum on the system, not a beauty contest," he said.
Huw Richards