How to manage IB predicted grades

This is my second year working as a college counsellor at an international school, and my first International Baccalaureate (IB) school. This means I’m learning something new every day. I attended an international school myself, so there are certainly overlapping elements, but the IB curriculum has distinct features and philosophies that my AP classes did not encompass.

A very important element in the university application process that I encountered for the first time in my current school was the predicted grade system.

I was surprised by how much weight the predicted grade carries in university applications. In certain applications, it is the singular element that reflects the academic potential of the student, even surpassing the transcript. Learning which region (or university) prioritises the transcript, the predicted grade or both (and if so, how) was and is still a journey of learning for me.

The predicted grade process is like walking a tightrope – avoid leaning this or that way. If the predicted grade is too high (overprediction), the chances of meeting offer conditions drop. If the predicted grade is too low (underprediction), the student has been denied a shot at the universities they should have applied to.

Predicted grades: inherently controversial?

I had a difficult time understanding the concept of predicted grades at first – why not just apply with the grades that are already set in stone at the end of the semester?

I see now that predicted grades allow for student potential and trends that cannot be captured by grades at single time points. It is a prediction that should be informed by evidence and by the subject teacher’s professional opinion.

But I also learned very quickly that this set-up can allow students to wonder out loud about the potential room for growth in predicted grades – and therefore feel a strong desire to consult teachers about this.

I also realised that all stakeholders in the school – students, subject teachers, diploma programme (DP) coordinator, secondary leadership team, parents and university counsellor – have something to say about predicted grades. Each perspective is valuable and worth listening to. And each perspective is at odds with the others at times.

Because of the weight the predicted grade carries, I understood why students (and parents) were so invested in ensuring that it reflects their perceived academic potential.

However, I also felt the crucial need for a predicted grade to be as accurate a data point as possible, as I witnessed the heartbreak of students receiving their final IB score report in July. They realised that they would fail to matriculate to the university that had made an offer to them because their final grades did not meet the university’s requirements – or the potential demonstrated by the predicted grade.

When students talk about how a higher predicted grade would be amazing for their applications, I gently remind them that accuracy is actually for their own good. Predicted grade accuracy ensures successful matriculation to the universities that offered them a place.

The predicted grade process: our version

In sum, these past two academic years have truly been a crash course in learning how to navigate the predicted grade process. To be better equipped for the next cycle, I reflected on this process and wrote down reminders and directions for myself. I’m sharing them below with the wider community, in the hope that this may be helpful for others, too. 

I understand that this process is done completely differently in every school, and that there is no one correct way. I’ll describe how it’s done at my school so that you have some context for my reflections.

In our school, from this year onwards, we will release the predicted grades (both whole and subject-specific scores) to students twice a year: October and February, plus the official April date in their final year. We will add an extra date for next year, at the end of grade 11 (Year 12), so that students can build an informed university list over the summer.

After students are informed of their predicted grades, they are allowed to appeal if they think it is not an accurate reflection of their potential. However, they cannot approach teachers directly. Instead, they must approach the DP coordinator or me, their college counsellor. We ask for the student to present a detailed rationale along with concrete evidence of their performance. We also simultaneously consult the teachers, who provide us with concrete data (such as grades of internal assessments or papers) as well as their observations of the students’ learning behaviour and overall academic performance.

The DP coordinator mediates the discussions about mechanics and assessments, and I assess any rationales associated with university applications. We share notes about all students who approach us. Ultimately, we uphold the teacher’s decision and do not override that, because they are the experts in the classroom.

What I learned about predicted grades

Collaborate, collaborate, collaborate

This is not a one-person show, by any means. Collaboration is essential between the key stakeholders in the academic team – subject teachers, heads of departments, DP coordinator – and the secondary leadership team, so that all members are on the same page.

Understand the pros and cons of releasing predicted grades to students

Certain schools choose to release predicted grades, while others do not. Releasing predicted grades ensures that students are equipped with the data to make an informed decision about their university applications. Not releasing predicted grades ensures academic integrity and positive relationships between staff and students.

Both are different set of benefits, and the decision whether to release is not an easy one. As a college counsellor, it’s important to understand both rationales.

Understand context

Piggybacking off the previous point, predicted grade processes all differ because each school’s context is unique. Taking into account the attitudes and relationships, norms and numbers that led to a certain decision will be helpful as you navigate difficult conversations or defend a particular decision made in the past.

Read up on official guidance

IB offers a professional development nano-resource (scroll down to the bottom) and Cambridge Assessment provides a guide. Ucas also has a page dedicated to predicted grades.

Have a communication plan

The frequency and format of communication, especially regarding a sensitive matter such as this, is important. Clear verbal communication is a must, but putting it in writing will also ensure that the message and procedures reach students and parents.

Create a process and reflect on it afterwards

Having a well-thought-out process can prevent a lot of headaches later on. If you are at a well-established school, it is likely that this is in a handbook or even a policy document. If you are provided with the responsibility of setting this up, consider setting out the predicted grade process in detail.

After you’ve created a process and gone through the cycle, reflect on it. The fact that there is no universal way to tackle predicted grades this means that different variations will lead to different consequences. What were they and what are the lessons learned? What can be done to improve the process for next time?

Hear each stakeholder out

Each stakeholder will have their thoughts on the predicted grade process, and each will have a good reason for their opinions. Listen to all sides and do not discount any. As the college counsellor, you’re at an excellent vantage point to understand the motivations behind each voice.

For the students, this is a distillation of all their academics to a single data point: seemingly the most important thing they’ve ever dealt with. That results in much anxiety. For teachers, this is a culmination of years of experience in the classroom and assessing students. The school leadership team and DP coordinator is responsible for keeping the predicted grades as accurate as possible.

Understanding what each stakeholder brings to the table helps you understand their reasoning.

Remind everyone that you have the same goal

When opinions differ, it’s easy to forget that you are on the same team with the same goal: the student’s success and best interests. When students get frustrated at teachers’ maintaining accuracy in their grades, even when the percentage is close to the uppermost grade boundary, this is a good time to remind them that this action arises out of care for the student, not an attempt to sabotage them. This is a good thing to keep in mind when emotions are running high.

Realise that the predicted grade process is part of the educational journey

Conversations about the predicted grade can easily tie into a conversation with the students about finding their best-fit university. The “reach” school is not necessarily the best school for the student, and predicted grades are actually an excellent tool in helping the student build a fitting list.

Beyond conversations about fit, college counsellors can play a role in educating all stakeholders about the role of predicted grades in university applications. Nobody has to understand all the nuances but you can explain what is at stake.

Protect your well-being

This can be an exhausting process. Set boundaries and practise self-care during this season, which may overlap with time-intensive application-preparation time.

Walk the tightrope carefully

Ultimately, any discussion about predicted grades is a balancing act. Balancing empathy and reason, academic potential and accuracy, short-term and long-term successes as well as the voices of all the stakeholders is not an easy feat, by any means.

But after you have gone through another cycle, hopefully you’ll have realised that you – alongside the secondary team – have supported yet another batch of your students in their goal of beginning the next stage of their life.

Shout out to Brandon Bewza for invaluable and formative conversations about predicted grades, which helped shape this article.