Australian university enrolment aspirations ‘don’t stack up’

Australia’s mini-budget has added to concerns that the country may not come anywhere near achieving the higher education attainment target inscribed in this year’s Universities Accord report.

The report said the target – to raise the proportion of degree-educated Australians to 55 per cent – would require an additional 940,000 government-subsidised university students between 2022 and 2050.

The government’s proposed “managed growth” funding system, to be rolled out under plans outlined in this year’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, will only deliver about 80,000 extra commonwealth-supported places (CSPs) by 2035.

Australian National University policy analyst Andrew Norton said this would barely compensate for a recent decline in CSPs. Subsidised university places fell from about 906,000 in 2021 to 834,000 in 2023, according to Department of Education data.

Professor Norton said the prospects of reaching the accord target appeared remote. While recent figures suggest that the number of people leaving school with Australian Tertiary Admission Ranks (ATARs) rose almost 4 per cent this year, this was primarily because of a temporary increase in the adolescent population.

“We’ve probably reached our natural limits…in enrolment share from the school leaver cohort,” he said. “Nothing in [exam data] suggests the…percentage of young people getting school results that would equip them for university is going to go up. If anything, it’s going to go down.”

Former Australian Catholic University vice-chancellor Greg Craven said it was difficult to envisage a repeat of the “massive exercise in social inclusion” achieved by the demand-driven system of early last decade.

“We suddenly had thousands of people living up to their potential,” he said. “Kids [came] into university in mass numbers, who would never have gone to university before, and…invigorated the professions of care, typically nursing and teaching. This [time] the numbers just don’t stack up.”

Professor Craven acknowledged that it “might take more effort” to achieve a similar step-change in higher education participation for a second time. “But I don’t accept the idea that people aren’t out there. The question…is what source of potential have you left untapped? The demand-driven system was closed off years ago. There is going to be an untapped well of opportunity and ambition, particularly in outer suburbs and the bush.”

Recent government statements have barely mentioned the accord’s higher education attainment goal, focusing instead on a broader tertiary education target calling for 80 per cent of the working age population to have post-school qualifications at apprenticeship level or higher.

Professor Norton said the 55 per cent target would require anybody with ATARs of 45 or more to obtain degrees. He said university was “extremely high risk” for some people who had not “done particularly well at school” – particularly young men. “They’re probably better off doing vocational education,” he said.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com