Downturn or turned off?

David Blunkett is worried that mature students are being put off by fees. But the decline in acceptances could be down to demography. Natasha Loder reports.

A startling decline in the numbers of mature students being accepted by universities was acknowledged by ministers for the first time last week. Education and employment secretary David Blunkett told the Labour Party conference: "There is a real danger of mature students being turned off. It is a challenge for all of us."

Mr Blunkett's concern is well-placed, despite government arguments previously that the decline is simply a matter of demographics rather than a result of the introduction of tuition fees.

This year's figures show that the downturn in acceptances by students over the age of 25 is between 15 and 20 per cent. This comes against a background of record numbers of applicants overall.

The news is a blow to those concerned with lifelong learning. The downturn is not distributed evenly. New universities and non-vocational courses are being hit hardest.

At the University of North London, London Guildhall and South Bank universities, over 70 per cent of the students are mature. A spokesperson for UNL insisted: "Our best estimates are that recruitment is on target," but Caribbean studies - a course that traditionally takes a large number of mature students from the local population - has lost a third of its students this year.

In a letter to The THES earlier this year, vice-chancellor Brain Roper added his name to those warning that changes to student finances were already deterring mature students.

Peter Knight, vice-chancellor of the University of Central England in Birmingham, said his institution would be looking very carefully at the "differential problems of mature students in different subjects". Given that the introduction of fees is the "most fundamental change (to student finance) since 1956", he said he would be surprised if there was no impact.

Manchester Metropolitan University's vice-chancellor, Alexandra Burslem, said: "If there is a delay, it is related to paying."

Mature students are often already burdened with financial commitments in the form of families and mortgages. Simon Defty, a member of the National Union of Students advisory committee for mature students, said the decline was "primarily to do with the fear of getting into debt", adding that the loss of the maintenance grant was making mature students think "very hard".

University and College Admissions Service chief executive Tony Higgins argues that there are two reasons for the decline. He concedes that fees may be putting off mature students with commitments. He points out that the highest rate of graduate unemployment is among those who were mature students - a factor likely to deter those concerned about accumulating debts.

His second argument is that there are fewer potential mature students around anyway. Mr Higgins feels that the market is saturated, explaining that although many 18-year-olds born in the bulge of the 1960s could not get a place at university they were eventually picked up by the polys.

Earlier this year David Robbins, the chief executive of the Higher Education information services Trust, told The THES: "Major demographic changes mean that numbers in the 21-29 age group, which accounts for the great majority of full-time mature entrants, are falling dramatically."

A demographic argument might stand up if the figures simply showed a year-on-year decline in numbers of students. But observers such as Damien Green, the Conservative education spokesman, point out that it is a "remarkable coincidence" that downturn has come at exactly the same time as fees have been introduced and grants cut.

The Committee of Vice-Chancellors and Principals agrees that the UCAS explanations make sense, but adds "there are a large number of potential mature students out there, particularly from lower socioeconomic groups, who could benefit from higher education".

A spokesman added: "Next week, we are asking the government how it plans to monitor the impact of the student funding scheme on all students, including mature students. We would be concerned if funding was having an impact on applications."

Nobody really knows if there are fewer potential mature students around, or even the scale of the effect that demographic factors would have. The speculation does not seem to be supported by anecdotal evidence from either the students or from the pattern of their applications.

If there are fewer potential mature students in the population or fees were the main factor, the Open University - where 90 per cent of the students are mature and all pay - might be expected to be suffering serious recruitment problems. Yet OU student applications are holding firm. Why? The answer may be that their courses are part-time and enable people to study from home. There are no figures yet for part-time applications to other universities.

More evidence that changes to student finance are putting mature students off is seen in the courses they appear to be avoiding, such as those that offer no development of career potential. UCAS says sociology has suffered an overall decline in numbers because of the drop in mature applicants. Reports suggest that humanities courses, except for English, are also suffering.

Simon Defty agrees this fits in with what he knows about the choices mature students make. In the past they went to university for the opportunity to study rather than further their careers, and would typically choose non-vocational courses such as the social sciences, politics and history.

While strongly welcoming the shift to a mass system of higher education, Alan Tuckett, director of the National Institute for Adult Continuing Education, said research had shown mature students "get into quite significant levels of debt", which had been compounded by this year's changes in student finance.

While younger people have a whole lifetime in which to get a return on this investment, older people do not. "The Treasury won't give loans for people over 55, because there is not a long enough payback period," said Mr Tuckett.

He explained that the problems thrown up this year are with the poorest mature students, who in the past would have studied full-time on a grant.

He is unimpressed by the demographic argument. "Why this year?" he asks. "The story of the past ten years is that where there is supply adults take places, when it becomes unavailable they quietly disappear." This raises the possibility that mature students may be pushed out by growing numbers of school-leavers.

David Blunkett - who was himself a mature student - is committed to access for older people and has said he will encourage universities to offer outreach and extramural courses. Further and higher education minister Baroness Blackstone has announced that from next year tuition for part-time students on benefits will be free.

She said: "Over the past 20 years the number of part-time students has almost doubled and currently stands at some 500,000. We believe that further expansion of part-time provision is needed if we are to encourage participation by those seeking a second chance."

These changes are warmly welcomed by Mr Tuckett as an important step in the government's "fine-tuning" of the recent changes to the financing of higher education.

A DFEEspokesperson said: "It is something we are concerned about - we are looking at it seriously," but added that it partly reflects trends in demographics and "possibly a strong labour market". It remains to be seen whether ministers will now take further action.

The DFEE-commissioned report on the factors that affect the decisions of prospective students to enter higher education is expected next March.

HOW MATURE STUDENTS ARE FUNDED

Mature students have had their entitlements cut since the mid-1990s. In 1994 the Mature Student Allowance - worth about Pounds 1,400 per year on top of the maintenance grant - started to be phased out. It went entirely two years ago.

Between 1994 and 1997, mature students, along with 18 to 21-year-olds, had 10 per cent annual cuts in their maintenance grants.

This year, along with the introduction of the Pounds 1,000 tuition fee, the maintenance grant has been cut by 50 per cent, and next year will disappear. It is thought that this is the biggest single financial obstacle for mature students.

It is now difficult to avoid large debts. The value of a loan will depend on where you live and study. New students living at home, under the age of 50, get Pounds 2,325.

The over-50s are not eligible for student loans, though banks are offering high-interest loans. It is also possible to get a Pounds 250 hardship loan. Mature students have, in theory, other means of support via awards and access funds (below). Students eligible for additional help have their loan assessed as income - although they have to pay it back. It is not certain what will happen next year when the system moves completely to loans.

Awards

Mature students can apply for a means-tested award from their local education authority. This is calculated on their income and their spouses' income. Most 25-plus students are expected to receive the full Pounds 1,000 tuition fees. Extra allowances are available for "certain students" and are income-dependent: up to Pounds 2,025 a year for a spouse (or other adult dependant, or for a first child); up to Pounds 1,620 each for other dependant children. A further Pounds 1,000 is available to single students with dependants.

There are a number of problems with these awards. The Mature Students Union, part of the National Union of Students, has evidence that suggests the awards are region-dependent - with no national definition of eligibility. MSU also says there is poor information on availability and they require a great deal of paperwork.

Access funds

Universities and colleges receive access funds so they can provide help to students with financial difficulties. The overall funds available have been doubled to Pounds 44 million.

Other finance

Disabled students allowance; tuition fees for teacher trainees; special arrangements for health professional students; career development loans for those unable to get a Local Education Authority mandatory award, student loan or other funding; social security benefits may be available to "certain students in vulnerable groups"; housing benefit/council tax rebates can be awarded by local authorities; child benefit.

All these allowances will be reviewed next year. It is expected that allowances relating to personal circumstances will continue to be available as grants, and course-related allowances will only be available as loans. From next year, part of the loan will be means tested.

How part-time students are funded

Part-time mature students have always had to pay tuition fees and received no grant - so they are not entitled to loans. They are able to get career development loans if they do vocational courses, but they have to start paying them back as soon as the course is over. In theory part-time students can apply to their LEA for dependants awards (see above) but these are discretionary and there is again no clear definition of eligibility.

Access funds have recently been opened up to part-timers, but the amounts available are generally very small, and availability varies.

Benefit availability for part-time students is something of a quagmire. Again, in theory, part-time students who study for less than 16 hours a week are entitled to social security benefits. But the MSU says part-time students have had problems getting benefits. The government recently announced an extra Pounds 5 million to allow the waiving of tuition fees for students on benefit.