Gulf syndrome probed

MAJOR Ian Hill went to the Gulf as a healthy theatre superintendent. Within days he was confined to a hospital bed. Now his family say he is dying.

No one doubts that Major Hill and possibly up to 2,000 other British Gulf veterans are ill. What remains scientifically unproven is a link between their symptoms and Gulf service.

Last week Nicholas Soames, the Armed Forces minister, announced a Pounds 1.3 million medical investigation into so-called Gulf War Syndrome, making the identification of a link between reported symptoms and Gulf service, if one exists, the responsibility of teams of British university scientists.

Based at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Manchester University and Kings College School of Medicine in London, scientists will embark in the new year on epidemiological surveys on a massive scale.

Since talk of Gulf War Syndrome emerged, clinical evidence has been collated in the United States and Britain. Patricia Doyle, a reproductive epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, asked: "What do these records mean? They are obviously ill but how do you make sense of that? You need to get a measure of risk among the group who went to the Gulf."

Unlike many chronicled illnesses, Gulf War Syndrome is so called because it appears to exhibit a range of symptoms.

The scientists will put these case histories into context, looking at whether the incidence and patterns of symptoms is significantly different among the 50,000 British Gulf War veterans from that shown by similar groups who did not serve in the Gulf.

Alan Silman, an occupational epidemiologist with the Manchester University team, said: "We can say these are the patterns of things they are complaining about but we don't know whether they are greater than the background population experiences."

Questionnaires will be sent to all Gulf veterans relating to their own health and that of their off-spring in the largest survey by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

"It's important that people respond even if they don't perceive they have anything wrong. People are worried. They fear they might lose their jobs if they report symptoms. But the data will not go to anyone but us," said Dr Doyle. "We then have to validate everything given to us."

Each study will take three years with the preliminary results from the Manchester team, which is comparing illnesses in a random sample of 6,000 Gulf veterans with servicemen who did not visit the region expected in 18 months.

The results are likely to be controversial. Professor Silman said: "I am concerned that it is going to be difficult to report our findings because of the political and media attention. If we say there is nothing, people will say we are not independent. I know we are."

Simon Wessely, of the department of psychological and epidemiological medicine at Kings College School of Medicine, whose work is funded with $1 million by the American Department of Defense, added: "I don't generally care what I find. What I care about is getting it right. In the end we will please someone and upset someone else."