Student vote 'not decisive' on poll

The student vote is unlikely to be a decisive factor in setting next year's general election date, says a leading electoral expert.

Recent reports have suggested that the Prime Minister might pick April 10, three weeks before the last possible polling date of May 1. It would give the Conservatives the possible advantage of a left-leaning student body voting in dispersion at home rather than concentrated in university constituencies. It has been suggested that around a dozen constituencies might stay Conservative because of this.

But Colin Rallings, head of politics at the University of Plymouth, sees serious disadvantages in April 10 for the Government. "People will have received their tax cuts," he said "but will also just have had their first Council Tax demands and had the chance to work out that for many of them it outweighs any income tax reductions."

It makes little difference that councils are overwhelmingly Labour or Liberal Democrat-controlled. "The evidence is pretty clear that the Government gets the blame for council tax bills."

Dr Rallings argued that Mr Major was far more likely to hang on for as long as possible, in the hope that something would cut Labour's current commanding lead in the opinion polls.

"The student vote only becomes a factor in a very close election. The first problem is to get the Labour advantage down into single figures. Unless they can do that, all of the seats that are being described as likely to be affected by the student vote will be lost anyway."

He noted that one of them, Southampton Test, was already being projected as a Labour seat following boundary changes.