Study permit numbers ‘down 45 per cent’ in Canada post-cap

The number of international students arriving in Canada is projected to fall by 45 per cent since the outgoing Trudeau administration’s controversial restrictions were introduced.

In response to wide concerns around housing pressure and healthcare, the government announced caps on the number of study permits that would be approved by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

Immigration minister Marc Miller set an initial target of approving 35 per cent fewer permits for international students than in 2023 and a new report from ApplyBoard estimates IRCC is on track to hit this target.

However, there were immediate concerns that this messaging alone would hurt recruitment, and the report appears to confirm this.

Between January and October last year, the approval rate for study permits was only 50 per cent – down from 61 per cent across the same period in 2023.

A record 79 per cent of Indian applicants had their permits approved, but the rate for all other students fell to just 42 per cent.

This suggests that warnings about record low numbers of applications from India – Canada’s number one source market – are bearing fruit. Despite record approval rates, the total number of study permits granted to Indian students has fallen by 53 per cent.

As a result, ApplyBoard projects that IRCC is now on pace to approve only 280,000 total study permits across the whole of 2024 – a 45 per cent drop from 2023 levels.

It would also be the lowest number of study permit approvals in a non-pandemic year since 2019.

The report warned that the drop in approval rate was driven by a steep decline in study permit approvals for institutions in Ontario and Quebec.

Average approval rates for applicants wanting to study in Quebec dropped by over 10 percentage points to only 32 per cent – the lowest provincial approval rate for the past decade.

Alongside India, ApplyBoard found steep falls in the number of study permits approved for students from Nigeria (down 67 per cent) and Nepal (down 72 per cent) – two of Canada’s other top markets.

Study permits for students from India, Nigeria and the Philippines made up 44 per cent of all approvals for the first 10 months of 2024 – down from 54 per cent between January and October 2023.

However, there were increases in study permits approved from Senegal (up 24 per cent), Guinea (13 per cent) and Vietnam (1 per cent).

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com