Bristol study reveals countries most likely to be impacted by future heatwaves

A recent study led by the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute for the Environment and published in Nature Communications has highlighted regions across the world that are most at risk of the devastating effects of scorching temperatures.  

The research found that unprecedented heat extremes combined with socioeconomic vulnerability puts certain regions, such as Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea, and Central America, at most risk.

Countries that have yet to experience the most intense heatwaves are often especially susceptible, as adaptation measures are often only introduced after the event. A high chance of record-breaking temperatures, growing populations, and limited healthcare and energy provision increase the risks. 

Beijing and Central Europe are also on the list of hotspots, as millions of people would be adversely affected if record-breaking heatwaves occurred in these densely populated regions.  

The study used extreme value statistics, a method to estimate the return periods of rare events, and large datasets from climate models and observations to pinpoint regions globally where temperature records are most likely to be broken soonest and the communities consequently in greatest danger of experiencing extreme heat.  

The researchers also warned that statistically implausible extremes, when current records are broken by margins that seemed impossible until they occurred, could happen anywhere. These unlikely events were found to have transpired in almost a third (31%) of the regions assessed where observations were deemed reliable enough between 1959 and 2021, such as the 2021 Western North America heatwave. 

Human-induced climate change is causing an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves, which have the potential to lead to thousands more excess deaths globally. Improving our understanding of where society may not be ready for climate extremes can help prioritize mitigation in the most vulnerable regions. The researchers are calling for policy makers in hotspot regions to consider relevant action plans to reduce the risk of deaths and associated harms from climate extremes.  

In recognition of the dangerous consequences of climate change, evidenced by the work of its climate experts, in 2019 the University of Bristol became the first UK university to declare a climate emergency. 

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Bristol’s Cabot Institute for the Environment is a diverse community of 600 experts, united by a common cause: protecting our environment and identifying ways of living better with our changing planet. Find out more about how our researchers are tackling the challenges of environmental change and natural hazards and disaster risk, and study opportunities on our environmental masters and PhD programmes.