Student visa issuances reached record levels in Australia late last year, suggesting that 12 months of policy upheaval have failed to suppress international education flows ahead of a federal election likely to be fought on migration.
Visa grants to would-be university students applying from overseas reached an all-time high of almost 17,000 in November, the latest month for which Department of Home Affairs statistics are available.
Monthly issuances have been at or near record levels since mid-2024, well exceeding pre-pandemic tallies and driving a surge in overall foreign student numbers. Higher education typically accounts for two-thirds or more of student visa recipients.
The figures show that student flows have weathered some 10 separate policy changes unleashed to dampen overseas enrolments since December 2023. They include increased financial capacity requirements on applicants, a doubling of visa fees and a chaotic reprioritisation of visa processing that has been blamed for soaring delays and refusals.
The opposition, which is due to contest a general election by mid-May, has repeatedly berated the Labor government over student volumes since Australia’s post-pandemic reopening of its borders. The surge in student numbers, initially spurred by policies enacted by the opposition when it was in government, has been blamed for housing shortages.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton promised “stricter caps on foreign students to relieve stress on city rental markets”, during an election campaign rally on 12 January.
While treasurer Jim Chalmers has attributed Australia’s lofty migrant tally to low departures rather than high arrivals, the latest statistics suggest both are contributing. And the figures do not include record numbers of applicants fighting to have their visa rejections overturned.
The Sydney Morning Herald reported that the backlog of international students contesting their visa refusals in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal had doubled in five months to exceed 20,000 for the first time, and that two-thirds of visa rejections were being overturned by the tribunal.
Meanwhile, overseas students are pursuing strategies to extend their time in Australia, including starting new courses or applying for asylum. Immigration expert Abul Rizvi said the tally of onshore student visa applicants had blown out to more than 100,000.
Home Affairs data provided to a Senate inquiry in October showed that a long-term monthly average of about 300 asylum applications from overseas students had increased to about 450 since mid-2024, reaching 516 by August – the highest figure in at least five years, and probably since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
Student visa grants could also increase following the late December replacement of the controversial ministerial direction 107, which slowed down the processing of many visa applications, with ministerial direction 111.
International education consultant Dirk Mulder said opinion on the new arrangements was divided, with some operators saying visa processing had sped up while others complained that it was slower than a year ago.
Both camps expressed concern about the likelihood of further policy changes and the fate of institutions that had reached their “thresholds” – 80 per cent of the formerly announced international student caps, the trigger point for slower visa processing.
One worry was that agents might stop referring students to universities and colleges in this position. “There is a large amount of angst as to how recruitment partners will work amongst institutions when they hit their 80 per cent threshold,” Mulder wrote on his Koala news site.
