UK universities have made their lowest number of unconditional offers for a decade, but they remain “one of the few recruitment levers still left to pull” for some less selective institutions.
Figures from admissions service Ucas show that 30,580 offers with an unconditional component were made in 2024 – down from 37,035 the year before, and 80 per cent below the peak of 156,260 in 2020.
While many institutions have stopped using them, a dozen providers were responsible for two-thirds of the national total – with the most from the University of Northampton (3,410) and Anglia Ruskin University (2,775).
Steve Jones, professor of higher education at the University of Manchester, said this reflected “universities not knowing which market games to play” in an increasingly harsh environment.
“Unconditional offers aren’t in the best interests of students, but in the current financial climate you can’t blame universities for trying every trick in the book,” he said.
Northampton said it does not put pressure on applicants to accept its offers, with its first-year accommodation guarantee deadline weeks after the Ucas decision date.
“When administered responsibly – based on potential, ability and evidence-based decision-making – unconditional offers can provide substantial benefits for both the applicant and the institution,” a spokesperson said.
Anglia Ruskin said it was proud of its commitment to social mobility and that it made unconditional offers to those meeting specific widening participation criteria.
Both universities gave out the exact same number of unconditional offers as they did in 2023, but there were massive increases at some institutions.
The University of Salford made just 10 unconditional offers in 2023, but 1,510 last year – the largest rise in the sector.
A Salford spokesperson said its use was appropriate and in conjunction with interviews and portfolios designed to understand applicants’ ability to undertake their programme of choice.
A total of 1,545 unconditional offers were made to Nottingham Trent University applicants – up from just 245 the year before – largely to those applying for creative courses.
This increase was due to the popularity of Nottingham Trent’s creative courses and the quality of portfolios from applicants, according to a spokesperson.
Like last year, three-quarters of the national total were unconditional at the point of offer, and a quarter became unconditional before the final date on which main scheme applications can be submitted.
“Conditional unconditional” offers – which only became unconditional when selected by an applicant as their first choice – once made up 60 per cent of the total share, but were banned during the pandemic.
In 2020, 42 providers made more than 1,000 unconditional offers overall, compared with just nine last year.
The University of Lincoln decreased its offer-making from 8,095 to just five last year after it ended its “guaranteed places programme” following the return to pre-Covid assessment methods.
Amid sector-wide financial concerns from top to bottom, vulnerable elite universities have begun hoovering up more applicants.
“Lower prestige universities no longer have protections when it comes to admissions,” warned Manchester’s Jones.
“In this brutal context, it’s not surprising that the unconditional offer is regarded as one of the few recruitment levers still left to pull.”
The total number of offers with an unconditional component last year is the lowest level since 2014.
Mark Corver, co-founder of the dataHE consultancy and a former director of analysis and research at Ucas, said unconditional offers helped some applicants take a place they might not otherwise be able to secure – and that students’ progress was not impaired.
“They act to increase the numbers gaining a place and provide early certainty, lowering costs for both applicants and universities,” he said.
“This is becoming more important for students as accommodation costs grow ahead of tuition fees.
“For lower-tariff universities in particular, being able to offer early certainty to some students is one of the few competitive cards they have left to play.”
Some providers have operated a slightly more erratic pattern of offer-making. The University of Portsmouth made 1,470 in 2020, 10 in 2021, 2,285 in 2022, 425 in 2024 and 2,230 in 2024.
A spokesperson said contextual offers were made after considering students’ circumstances, and their widening participation criteria or portfolio.
“When used appropriately, unconditional offers for these applicants can reduce stress, and support the transition from school to university for some of our degree programmes,” Portsmouth said.